![]() We now anticipate a peak shortfall in 2026 of about 24,000 pilots instead of a peak of close to 30,000 once predicted in the wake of COVID-19 early retirements. While it will still be a complex balancing act for airlines for the rest of the decade, especially if projected demand materializes, the latest Oliver Wyman analysis suggests the pilot shortage will be less severe than expected. Awareness of the impending, decade-long shortage itself also ended up helping attract pilot candidates, giving them new confidence in the potential for long-term job security in what has been at times a boom-and-bust industry. For instance, besides cutting back on service, airlines also tried to lure pilot candidates by increasing salaries - significantly in the case of regional airlines - and providing faster paths to career advancement. Industry Efforts to Close the Gapsīut, over the past year, airlines have been working hard to address the various shortages. In the case of both pilots and mechanics, the gaps between supply and demand cannot be filled overnight because of the training required and a limited pool of prospective technician candidates. In fact, the aviation industry in North America enters 2023 with too few workers in many job categories, including air traffic controllers and ground crew. The gap represents about 14% of the total workforce of mechanics, which are often referred to as technicians in the industry because of the advanced, highly skilled nature of their work. This estimate takes into consideration the number of licensed and unlicensed labor working on aircraft and in repair shops as well as the anticipated demand for maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services. Oliver Wyman projects a gap in 2023 between the North American supply and demand for mechanics of more than 12,000. This year, there are also too few mechanics. In 2022, there were already too few commercial airline pilots in North America, leading to cutbacks in service to less popular and more rural destinations and a contraction of regional jet operations that had lost pilots to major airlines.
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